Friday, July 02, 2004

Not Quite Nostradamus

In the recent "Predict the Rose Cup Final Four" poll, voters were 2 for 4 on the weekend. No danger of becoming a Nostradamus quatrain, but a pretty good showing nonetheless. By the time the first pitch was thrown on Saturday morning by Meraloma Clubs' Fabian McCarty to Team Rainey's Jesse Duncan, voters had predicted the following Final Four (with vote totals shown):

1) Broken Bow (139)
2) Victoria (116)
3) Vancouver (98)
4) Team Rainey (97)

On Sunday afternoon, when Broken Bow's Rhys Casley squeezed the ball for out number three of the championship game, the official Final Four order was set:

1) Broken Bow
2) Team Rainey
3) tie-Portland DeMarini and Castlewood, UT

The predicted order of finish followed the ISC rankings as the teams entered the weekend, with Broken Bow the obvious #1 choice. Victoria was ranked #6, Vancouver #10, and Team Rainey #17. (Voters apparently noting that Rainey had beaten Portland over Memorial Weekend) The voters were actually pretty close in that they pegged Portland to finish 5th, earning 49 votes, and had Castlewood at 7th, though with only 12 votes. But ranking are just that - rankings, and often replaced by what actually takes place on the field. That's what makes them so much fun to follow, and the games so interesting to watch.

Upsets at the Rose Cup were aplenty, with the #9 Vancouver Grey Sox Sunday morning elimination loss to #24 ISC-II ranked River City Rockers of Sacramento among the more notable. Many expected to see either Victoria or Vancouver in the finals with Broken Bow. Saving ace Nick Underhill, Vancouver was eliminated even before the quarterfinals. River City took a 7-3 lead into the 7th inning against Vancouver as players and fans alike drifted over to the catch the end of the game, double checking the scoreboard to see if they had heard it right. The Grey Sox finished with a flourish, nearly pulling it out of the fire with a double-double-homer to cut the lead to 7-6. But the Rockers made a timely pitching change and hung on for the upset victory.

A couple hours later, it was the #6 Victoria Travellers Inn, picked as the most likely finals opponent of Broken Bow coming up short against #17 (now #15) Team Rainey. Despite being a good margin apart in the ISC rankings, these two teams seem pretty evenly matched. More surprising than the outcome perhaps, was the final score: 10-2 in 6 innings. Korrey Gareau and Travis Price were knotted up at 2 in a good pitching duel, til a discussion over an illegal substitution led to a 15 minute delay which seemed to hurt Gareau. When play resumed, Rainey exploded for 8 runs, hitting 4 home runs on the day. Mike Butler got his second homer of the tournament in the 4th, then came back and hit another in the 6th, a walk off run rule homer in the 6th. It was the first and only game on Sunday for Travellers' Inn. Like Vancouver's Underhill, Victoria's Collin McKenzie, who tossed two perfect games the day before, never threw a pitch.

Team Rainey, the eventual runner-up got knocked off by #30 Morgan Transfer of Olympia. An upset on paper, these two appeared evenly matched, with Bricklin Anderson outdueling Tony Peeples 1-0, suggesting more that Morgan Transfers' #30 ranking was too low, than the other way around. In fairness to the ISC rankers, Morgan Transfer is a new team for 2004, actually a bolstered Bucknell Park team with Bricklin Anderson one of the notable additions that have already taken Scott Meyer's team to the next level. Next to Broken Bow's aces, Muizellar and Cox, and the two perfectos by Collin McKenzie, Anderson turned in the most impressive pitching performances of the tournament.

Morgan Transfer/Olympia (ISC #30) suffered an upset loss themselves, dropping their tournament opener to ISC-II #7 ranked CR Adidas, 7-6. (Olympia perhaps looking ahead to their other two pool play games against Broken Bow and Team Rainey)

Host (#14 ranked) Portland DeMarini bounced back on Sunday with a couple of wins, but suffered an upset loss of their own, falling in to ISC #42 Bodle Chiropractic in a pool play game Saturday.

Meraloma Club knocked off the highly regarded Linus Software Stealers, in the "Battle of British Columbia". Linus was a top 10 ISC-II team until their pitching staff made them ineligible. The Stealers were one of only four teams in the Rose Cup to post winning records on Saturday, finishing with a 2-1 record.

Castlewood's 3rd place finish marked the second major in row where they made the Final Four, with Red Rock being the other. Impressive for a team that came in among the ISC II teams, ranked #21.

In a separate poll, FPW poll voters did accurately predict Castlewood (ISC-II #21) as the top finishing ISC-II team (probably noting the final four finish at Red Rock). They were a narrow choice over the Fullerton Leafs, and CR Adidas, who owned a higher ranking, ISC-II #7. Castlewood exceeded expectations in finishing third, while voters predicted the top ISC-II team would finish no better than fifth place.

Can Anyone Beat Broken Bow? After watching Broken Bow dismantle the competition at Red Rock, the question was whether anyone would give them a run for their money at Rose Cup.

Current #9 team Vancouver got a chance early Saturday and came up short, losing a 8-0 game. Fans at the tournament were anxious to see how Nick Underhill's collarbone had healed. He surrendered 4 earned runs through 5 innings, but his defense added two free runs, so this one was over early.

Current #30 Morgan Transfer of Olympia WA (a bolstered Bucknell Park team) made its case for an even higher ranking, losing to Broken Bow by a 3-1 score, and actually outhitting them along the way, 5-4, with Bricklin Anderson on the mound against Gerald Muizelaar. What made Anderson's performance even more impressive was that it came on the heels of a 1-0 shutout of Team Rainey. Muizelaar proved to be the difference maker in this one though, striking out 13, and getting outs when he needed them.

Current #15 Team Rainey got the Bow in the final game on Saturday, losing 4-1 in a well pitched game by Frank Cox and Travis Price. Price avoided the big inning that Broken Bow so often has, but Mike Butler's home run proved to be Rainey's only offense.

Sunday proved easier for Broken Bow, cruising to easy victories, 8-0 over Morgan Transfer in the quarters and 12-2 in 5 innings over Portland in the semis.

Rainey got another shot in the finals, but this one was not as close as Saturday's 4-1 margin, with the Spirit winning this one, a three-hit, 6-0 shutout by Frank Cox. Cox was masterful, with pinpoint control "living on the edges" [of the plate] as someone noted after the game. Despite the 6-0 deficit though, Rainey did not go quietly, with Nate Devine sending eventual MVP Ryan Wolfe running through the portable fencing with a near home run, and then loading the bases against the Spirit in the 7th inning, bringing home run hero Mike Butler to the plate. Team Rainey players and fans, listening to the live audio no doubt recalled Butler's home run against Cox on Saturday, (and two against Victoria earlier on Sunday. And wondered. And hoped. But Cox closed it out, as he and Muizelaar did all weeekend long, sealing the shutout win.

Better competition for the Bow? Yes. Beat them? Not this weekend. Of course, The (3# ranked) Farm knocked them off at Amsterdam a couple weeks ago. And #2 County Materials will take them on in the Friday night feature at Monkton Ontario tonight.

No telling what Nostradamus is predicting for that one......

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